Poll shows neck-and-neck race ahead of Michigan’s election for key Senate seat
A new poll suggests Michigan’s 2026 Senate race is shaping up to be far more competitive than expected, with Republican Mike Rogers holding narrow leads over potential Democratic challengers in early hypothetical matchups.
A new poll suggests Michigan’s 2026 Senate race is shaping up to be far more competitive than expected, with Republican Mike Rogers holding narrow leads over potential Democratic challengers in early hypothetical matchups.
The survey, conducted Jan. 2-6 by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV, polled 600 likely voters and found Rogers leading Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens by less than half a point, 44.1% to 43.7%. According to The Detroit News, the slight difference falls within the poll’s 4-point margin of error.
Rogers’ advantage over two other leading Democratic contenders is also tight. According to the survey, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow trails Rogers 45.7% to 42.4%, while former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed falls further behind at 48% to 41.6%, outside the margin of error.
The open-seat contest follows Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ decision not to seek reelection.
The survey found Rogers does enjoy a significant name-recognition advantage, with 71% of voters saying they are familiar with him. Among Democrats, El-Sayed leads on recognition at 47%, followed by Stevens at 41.7% and McMorrow at 24.3%.
Rogers’ campaign called the results encouraging, saying in a Jan. 14 statement that “poll after poll continues to show that working families are rallying behind Mike Rogers.”
Stevens also highlighted the poll’s results in a Jan. 15 post on X, arguing the numbers show she is best positioned to defeat Rogers in November. She shared a photo of the results, averaging both herself and Rogers at 44%.
Polls show I’m the only candidate that can beat MAGA Mike in November.
— Haley Stevens (@HaleyforMI) January 15, 2026
I’m running to be Michiganders’ voice in the Senate and continue my fight to lower costs, protect manufacturing jobs, and stand up to the chaos we’ve seen from the Trump admin. pic.twitter.com/naIYcmD2YU
“Polls show I’m the only candidate that can beat MAGA Mike in November,” she wrote. “I’m running to be Michiganders’ voice in the Senate and continue my fight to lower costs, protect manufacturing jobs, and stand up to the chaos we’ve seen from the Trump admin.”
Rogers lost Michigan’s other Senate race in 2024, but narrowly – by fewer than 20,000 votes, according to The Daily Signal. The victory went to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich. The Signal also reported that Rogers has since secured endorsements from President Donald Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Joshua Mercer, vice president of advocacy for CatholicVote, believes Rogers’ strong candidacy offers a rare opportunity for Michigan’s pro-life voters.
“With Gary Peters retiring, the Michigan Senate seat is wide open,” Mercer said. “President Trump has endorsed Mike Rogers, who came within a whisker of winning a Senate seat just last year. Michigan hasn’t voted for a pro-life Senator in 20 years, but this might be our best chance in decades.”
According to The Detroit News, Republicans have not won a Michigan Senate seat since 1994.
Michigan is one of two Democrat-held Senate seats rated by The Cook Political Report as a “toss-up” for 2026, alongside Georgia. The Cook Political Report also rates as “toss-ups” seats held by Republican Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Susan Collins of Maine.
Republicans currently hold a narrow 53-47 majority in the Senate, making the Michigan contest a key race to watch in this year’s elections. Its primaries will be held Aug. 4.
